This article was published in Economist, 2023, No. 290(02): 101-110. It is the research output supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China project "Time Strategy Selection Mechanism of Enterprise Patent Litigation from the Perspective of Competitive Interaction" (72072129), the major research project on key issues of the "14th Five-Year Plan" National Science and Technology Innovation Plan (GHZX2020SSWSH05), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (22120210242).
Facing the rise of anti-globalization sentiment and escalating technological containment, accelerating the formation of a new dual circulation development pattern and achieving high-quality innovation has become China's core countermeasure. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, global economy and governance are facing even more severe challenges. In response to changes in both domestic and international situations, China has proposed to build a new development pattern of dual circulation. How to optimize China’s science and technology innovation system within this new pattern has become increasingly important. Based on the analysis of the connotation and realization path of the new development pattern, this paper constructs theoretical models through the basic logic of the economic dual circulation and the science and technology innovation system. It summarizes the changes in the supply and demand sides of the economic system under the new pattern, as well as the key changes faced by the science and technology innovation system in identifying and solving problems. Subsequently, it establishes an adaptability model between the economic dual circulation and the science and technology innovation system, linking the key changes in the economic dual circulation with the innovation system, exploring the opportunities and challenges posed by these changes on the innovation system’s problem identification and solving processes, clarifying the potential risks and opportunities for the innovation system under the new development pattern, and putting forward several optimization recommendations and countermeasures, including strengthening international cooperation through innovative models, broadening the channels for identifying innovation problems, enhancing capabilities for solving frontier scientific problems, and adjusting the structure of the science and technology innovation system.
Specifically, the article first discusses the connotation and realization path of the new development pattern, arguing that it refers to a development pattern in which the domestic circulation serves as the mainstay while domestic and international circulations promote each other. Its purpose is to fully leverage China’s super-large market advantages and domestic demand potential. The new development pattern is neither a closed domestic circulation nor a total negation of past development strategies, but rather an inclusive and open dual circulation pattern, representing an elevation and deepening of previous strategies in the new development stage. Furthermore, building the new development pattern requires clarifying key paths and focusing on both the supply and demand sides, with reforms stimulating potential. Regardless of the pathway, science and technology innovation remains the key to the rapid formation of the new development pattern.
Secondly, the article reviews the basic logic of the economic dual circulation and the science and technology innovation system under the new development pattern, outlining theoretical models as shown in Figures 1 and 2, and further summarizing the changes in the supply and demand sides of the economic system. On the international supply side, the supply of production factors is impacted, while the supply of consumer products or services remains largely unchanged. On the domestic supply side, there are risks of supply chain transmission due to constraints on certain factors, while the supply of consumer products or services shows little change. On the international demand side, demand from certain countries for some of China's production factors has decreased, while the demand for international products and services has not changed significantly. On the domestic demand side, demand for production factors, consumer products, and services has increased. At the same time, the paper analyzes the key changes faced by the science and technology innovation system in identifying and solving problems. Under the new development pattern, the number of problems raised by foreign demanders and innovation workers tends to decrease, while problems raised by domestic demanders significantly increase; however, the number of problems raised by domestic scientists may not increase significantly. In terms of problem-solving, the possibility of some countries directly participating in solving China’s problems may decline, and the problem-solving potential of domestic innovators may not be fully stimulated and released.
Figure 1 Economic Dual Circulation under the New Development Pattern
Figure 2 Dual Circulation Situation of China's Science and Technology Innovation System
Thirdly, an adaptability model is established between the economic dual circulation and the science and technology innovation system under the new development pattern, as shown in Figure 3. This model integrates the key changes of the economic dual circulation with the science and technology innovation system, exploring the opportunities and challenges posed by changes in the supply and demand sides of the economic dual circulation on the innovation system's problem identification and solving processes. On the one hand, under the new development pattern, the supply side presents opportunities and challenges for problem identification and solving. Due to the uncertainty of international high-tech production factor supply, a large number of innovation problems arise on the domestic supply side. Additionally, the restriction on the use of some high-tech production factors means that relevant enterprises face many issues to be solved. In terms of problem-solving, the domestic supply side rapidly encounters a series of key technological issues that need breakthroughs, while the possibility of international advanced scientific forces participating in solving China’s problems declines. On the other hand, the demand side under the new development pattern also brings opportunities and challenges. The international market’s demand for China’s mid- to low-tech production factors is not significantly affected, while the domestic market’s demand for local production factors, products, and services increases significantly, generating more technological innovation problems. In terms of problem-solving, the level of international participation declines, while the expansion of domestic demand attracts more forces to participate in solving innovation problems.
Figure 3 Adaptability Model between Economic Dual Circulation and Technological Dual Circulation
Finally, the paper identifies the potential opportunities and risks facing China’s science and technology innovation system under the new development pattern and puts forward optimization recommendations and countermeasures. Potential opportunities include the current pandemic context and the opportunity to bridge technological gaps in some key technology fields. The main potential risks include the weakening of the promotion of China's technological innovation due to changes in international supply-demand relations, the risk of excessive efforts in addressing weak areas and insufficient efforts in strengthening strong areas, the risk of excessive competition in the domestic market, and the risk of hindrance to the high-end transformation of the international circulation. Based on these opportunities and risks, the following recommendations are proposed: First, under the new development pattern, there should be a basic understanding that the economic dual circulation brings significant changes in international and domestic supply and demand, which create opportunities and challenges for the innovation system's problem identification and solving processes, requiring targeted optimization. Second, China should not actively construct a technological dual circulation system under the new development pattern but should proactively respond to the trend of technological dual circulation and strive to avoid its formation, enhancing international cooperation through innovative models. Third, in the problem identification phase of the innovation system under the new development pattern, it is necessary to broaden the channels for obtaining innovation problems. Fourth, in the problem-solving phase, efforts should be accelerated to address key technological issues and enhance the capacity to solve frontier scientific problems. Fifth, China’s science and technology innovation system needs to adjust its structure, improve the governance system, and strengthen the support of an independent innovation culture under the new development pattern.
